The Big Bet

“In The Big Bet, Michael Auerbach explores the past, present, and future of the prediction market.... This is a dazzling and entertaining book.... But it is also an urgent warning about what we might gamble away if we become a society that wagers on everything.” —Patrick Radden Keefe, author of Empire of Pain

In recent years, prediction markets have swept the world, fundamentally changing the nature of gambling and making their youthful pioneers billionaires. Quickly outpacing traditional political polling in accuracy, these markets have made headlines for portending shocking events—from Donald Trump’s 2024 victory over Kamala Harris to the capture of Nicolas Maduro. But are these markets really a new phenomenon? And what does it mean when those tasked with safeguarding democracy hold financial stakes in its volatility?

From wagers on papal conclaves in Renaissance Rome to the Pentagon’s ill-fated terrorism futures exchange to blockchain-based betting on Polymarket today, The Big Bet tells the gripping five-hundred-year story of this unregulated, multibillion dollar industry. Drawing on deep expertise, Michael Auerbach examines how these markets are changing our world and what they mean for the future of our democratic self-governance.

As Auerbach shows, prediction markets are not an anomaly—they are the logical endpoint of a society that applies market capitalism to every aspect of life. Facing a world where everything is a wager and nothing is off limits, The Big Bet urges us to ask: What happens when democracy becomes another commodity?